Query evaluation over probabilistic databases is notoriously intractable -- not only in combined complexity, but often in data complexity as well. This motivates the study of approximation algorithms, and particularly of combined FPRASes, with runtime polynomial in both the query and instance size. In this paper, we focus on tuple-independent probabilistic databases over binary signatures, i.e., probabilistic graphs, and study when we can devise combined FPRASes for probabilistic query evaluation.

We settle the complexity of this problem for a variety of query and instance classes, by proving both approximability results and (conditional) inapproximability results together with (unconditional) DNNF provenance circuit size lower bounds. This allows us to deduce many corollaries of possible independent interest. For example, we show how the results of Arenas et al. [ACJR21a] on counting fixed-length strings accepted by an NFA imply the existence of an FPRAS for the two-terminal network reliability problem on directed acyclic graphs, a question asked by Zenklusen and Laumanns [ZL11]. We also show that one cannot extend a recent result of van Bremen and Meel [vBM23] giving a combined FPRAS for self-join-free conjunctive queries of bounded hypertree width on probabilistic databases: neither the bounded-hypertree-width condition nor the self-join-freeness hypothesis can be relaxed. We last show how our methods can give insights on the evaluation and approximability of regular path queries (RPQs) on probabilistic graphs in the data complexity perspective, showing in particular that some of them are (conditionally) inapproximable.